It’s...the path to breaking Trump’s congressional agenda
No more oligarchs: donate to my friend Will Lawrence to bring regular people to Congress
A short and sweet appeal to friends of the blog. Less think-y, more call to action-y.—Eds.
Twenty five years ago, there were around 124 swing seats in the House of Representatives. That means that more than 1 out of every 4 members of the lower house needed to win a competitive general election in order to represent their district.
Since then, swing seats have become an endangered species. In 2012, there were about 100. In 2022, only 30.
This current midterm cycle boasts a mere 18 genuine toss up seats, according to New York Times estimates. I want to talk to you about one of them: Michigan’s 7th.
The disappearance of the vast majority of swing seats over the years means that the ones remaining are incredibly valuable. The stakes are high. Misread the moment (witness the presidential races in 2016 and 2024) and primary voters might nominate a candidate who is out-of-step with the feelings of the rest of the electorate.
The person I believe has the best shot to win the district in November — and bring Trump’s agenda to a screeching halt in Congress — is my friend Will Lawrence.
Right now, MI-7 is represented by Tom Barrett, a first-term Republican elected in 2024 by beating the Democratic candidate, a career politician from a Michigan political dynasty. Before that, the seat was held by Democrat Elissa Slotkin. Before that, the district was represented by Republican Tim Walburg, and before that, by Democrat Mark Schauer. You get the idea — this district swings.
The Republicans in Congress have 218 House seats right now.1 That’s the thinnest margin for a majority. If Michigan’s 7th swings back to the Democratic Party in 2026, it likely spells the end of the GOP’s governing trifecta. Will is running to do exactly that.
In order to face Barrett, though, Will has to win the primary on August 4th. If I didn’t believe Will was the strongest candidate to flip MI-7th, I wouldn’t be sending this email. But it’s clear that Will has the upper hand to win the district for Democrats in November.
For one, Will is actually from the district. He lives in East Lansing as a tenant organizer, organizing the Michigan Rent Is Too Damn High Coalition. One of his opponents only moved to Lansing last year after almost 30 years in the foreign service. It’s precisely because Will has talked to people from the district every damn day for years that he knows how unhappy voters are with data centers driving up electricity prices. Seriously unhappy: the campaign shared polling with me that said data centers are at an extraordinary -77 favorability in the district right now. Will’s steadfast opposition to the Big Tech buildout in Michigan is probably why he is leading with independents — the swingiest of swing voters — in the district.
If you care about how expensive life has gotten, then give to Will.
For another, Will is the kind of populist, outsider candidate that is overperforming in our anti-establishment era. Progressive insurgents have won their primaries in Pennsylvania, New York, and Colorado in recent weeks, and Will is well positioned to carry that spirit into Michigan.
See this Instagram video in which Will responds to attacks that he has somehow been raking in the big bucks from Wall Street. Will dispatches the critique: his opponents are multimillionaires who have “literally taken more money from lobbyists, CEOs, and senior partners of exploitative corporations in the first quarter, than my entire net worth.” Which, he admits, is 40k. Who do you think is more relatable to the median voter in Michigan: a renter from Lansing struggling to pay the bills every month, or lifelong bureaucrats who own multimillion dollar properties in DC?
If you care about bringing regular people — instead of oligarchs and their friends — to Congress, give to Will.
Finally, and most importantly, Will wins. The most recent polling data shows that Will is the only Democratic candidate who flips the district blue in November.
If you care about electability, give to Will.
For my friends in New York City, you can meet Will yourself next week. He’ll be in Bed-Stuy on Tuesday, July 14th in the evening. Grab your ticket here.
If you’re not in New York or you can’t make it, please please throw him some money anyway. Unlike his opponents, he’s not taking corporate PAC donations and he doesn’t have the same network as multimilionaires do. So it’s up to people like you and me to power his campaign to victory.
I sent Will 200 bucks after I spoke to him last week. I hope you’ll donate what you can to bring a principled leader to Congress.